I’ve seen a lot of smart people on my feed call the Democratic Party (or at least its leadership) things like “spineless”, “cowardly” or “useless” after it became clear that Democrats would not shut down the government over DACA. While I agree that the Democrats have made a hash of the politics of this moment, I question an underlying premise: that shutting down the government is the best way to get DACA. Demanding a shutdown is an understandable, but I think ultimately counterproductive, reaction to the feeling of powerlessness that comes from being in the total minority. While I agree that Congressional Dems should do a better job of publicly standing up for causes they nominally support, a shutdown isn’t the way to do it.
The thing to remember about a shutdown is that it isn’t just some cost-free demonstration of political will. As was correctly pointed out when Republicans shut down the government in 2013, shutdowns have real human costs. The failure to pass CHIP and DACA both impose terrible consequences; but so will any meaningful disruption in funding for WIC, food stamps, disability benefits environmental safety inspections, and many other important government functions a shutdown will affect. These aren’t trivial impacts, and too much discussion of the shutdown treats it as just a political tool with no downstream consequences.
This real cost magnifies my second concern about a shutdown: it’s only worthwhile if we win. Again, the rhetoric calling for a shutdown assumes that if only the Democrats had the will to shut down the government, Republicans would fold (or at least that this is the only way that Democrats can show the world that they’re SERIOUS about accomplishing their goals). But, you don’t win negotiations just by demonstrating your commitment to your goals. You need leverage too. You need to be able hold out for long enough to show that you’re not just bluffing. And here, Democrats are at a significant structural disadvantage in playing the shutdown game. Republicans just don’t have the same incentives to keep the government running. Frankly, an extended shutdown seems like it might accomplish a lot of Republican goals. Those human costs I mentioned above? Cutting back on regulations, denying low-income assistance, not paying federal workers. Those are Republican goals! This would make it easier for many ideological Republicans to dig in on refusing to cave to Democratic demands. The shutdown could also lose Republicans who are currently negotiating on DACA when they are yanked back to the party line.
And the lack of leverage manifests in Republican political commitment too. Republicans just passed a tax bill that was the equivalent of their willingness to stick their heads in a fire to achieve their donor’s goals. DACA and CHIP are hugely popular and they’re uninterested in passing them. They either are in total denial or totally resigned to massive losses in 2018 already. They’re not going to cave quickly because shutting down the government is unpopular, especially given the benefits I mention above. And once the Democrats go down the shutdown path, they can’t just decide after a week that it’s not worth the fight and restore funding–that will be the end of their negotiating leverage forever.
None of this is to say a shutdown should never be used. It is to say that a shutdown should be viewed as a tool to accomplish a goal, not as a political demonstration. Before you call for a shutdown, ask yourself whether you think, given the costs and the risks of failure, it’s the best tool for this job. As long as Democrats think that meaningful progress is being made on DACA and extending CHIP in January, there are good reasons to leave the shutdown in reserve (especially for a potential Mueller firing or other step toward a real coup).
Relic of a Predigital Age 